The 2026 hurricane season Myrtle Beach is anticipated to be influenced significantly by this Super El Niño.

A potentially historic El Niño is building in the Pacific. For Horry County residents entering another hurricane season, the question is whether that distant ocean warming will shield the Grand Strand — or whether it even matters.

The tropical Pacific has shifted. After nearly two years of neutral conditions, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center reported in April 2026 that El Niño is expected to emerge between May and July. The International Research Institute at Columbia University places the probability at 92 to 94 percent by late summer. The UK Met Office went further, calling this potentially “the strongest El Niño event this century so far, comparable to the notable El Niño event in 1998.” The World Meteorological Organization confirmed that climate models are “strongly aligned” with high confidence in El Niño’s onset.

“Super El Niño” is media shorthand. NOAA classifies an event as “very strong” when Pacific sea surface temperatures exceed 2.0 degrees Celsius above average. Only five events since 1950 have crossed that threshold. Current projections give this one a 25 percent chance of joining that group by winter. Whether it does or not, the 2026 hurricane season is shaping up as a test case for one of the most contested questions in climate science — and the answer carries real stakes for every homeowner between Cape Fear and Cape Canaveral.

According to AAA:

Advanced Preparations

• 27% have not made any advance preparations for hurricane season
• 60% only make preparations if there is a hurricane approaching their area

## The El Niño Shield

El Niño’s influence on Atlantic hurricanes operates through a well-documented mechanism. Warming in the central and eastern Pacific alters atmospheric circulation, increasing vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin. That shear tears apart tropical disturbances before they can organize into hurricanes.

The historical record supports this. According to data compiled by NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, only nine hurricanes made landfall on the U.S. East Coast across 22 El Niño events between 1900 and 1998. Of 54 major hurricanes that struck the U.S. coast between 1900 and 1983, just four occurred during 16 El Niño years — a rate of 0.25 per year compared to 0.74 per year during non-El Niño years. That is nearly a three-to-one ratio favoring suppression.

Understanding the 2026 Hurricane Season Myrtle Beach

**Colorado State University’s April 2026 forecast reflects that history.** Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach and his team projected 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes — below the 30-year average. Their models show wind shear projected to be the second highest since 1981. They placed the probability of at least one East Coast hurricane landfall at 15 percent, compared to a historical average of 21 percent.

For Horry County, those numbers sound reassuring. They should also sound familiar. Forecasters projected suppression in 2023, too.

## When Warm Water Wins

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season produced 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes — all despite a strong El Niño that reached 2.0 degrees Celsius above average — the “very strong” threshold. The El Niño shield held in the upper atmosphere. The ocean below overpowered it.

Klotzbach and colleagues, writing in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society in 2024, concluded that “the primary driver of the above-normal season was likely record warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, which effectively counteracted some of the canonical impacts of El Niño.” The Atlantic was so hot that storms found enough energy to survive the shear.

The Atlantic has not cooled. The same warm-phase pattern in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation that fueled 2023 persists into 2026. A machine-learning model at the University of Arizona, which weights sea surface temperatures more heavily than traditional statistical models, projects 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes for 2026. That is a near-mirror of 2023.

**The split between CSU’s 13 storms and Arizona’s 20 is itself the headline.** It reflects a fundamental disagreement over whether atmospheric shear or ocean heat will dominate. Klotzbach acknowledged the tension directly: “The large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty.” When the two most-cited forecasting groups diverge by seven named storms, the honest answer is that no one knows. That uncertainty is not academic for a county that floods from Category 1 systems.

## The Transition Trap

Even if El Niño suppresses the 2026 season as CSU projects, history suggests the real danger may arrive in the back half — or the following year. El Niño-to-La Niña transition years are among the most destructive on record for the southeastern coast.

The pattern is straightforward. El Niño’s wind shear weakens as the Pacific cools toward neutral or La Niña conditions. But the Atlantic’s warm water does not cool at the same pace. The result is a window — typically August through November — when shear drops while ocean energy remains elevated. Storms that could not organize in June find open lanes in September.

The 1997-1998 sequence illustrates the trap. The 1997 Super El Niño produced just seven named storms and no East Coast landfalls. The 1998 transition year produced 14 storms and 10 hurricanes. Hurricane Bonnie struck North Carolina as a Category 2.

The 2015-2016 cycle followed a similar arc. The 2015 Super El Niño held activity below average, but a stalled low-pressure system over South Carolina, fed in part by moisture from Hurricane Joaquin, dropped more than 26 inches of rain, caused $2 billion in damage, and killed 25 people. The 2016 transition brought Hurricane Matthew to McClellanville as a Category 1.

**The 2024 transition year was the worst in recent memory.** Eighteen named storms, 11 hurricanes. Helene and Milton together caused $131 billion in damage and killed 442 people. Whether 2026 is the suppressed year or the transition year, Horry County sits in the historical strike zone either way.

## What Horry County Stands to Lose

The Grand Strand is not the same coast it was the last time a Super El Niño formed. Horry County’s population has reached approximately 440,800, according to World Population Review — up 63 percent from 270,295 in 2010. Every one of those new residents added a rooftop, a car, and a set of possessions into the floodplain.

The financial exposure has grown faster than the population. Average homeowners insurance runs $4,476 per year for a $300,000 dwelling, 52 percent above the state average, according to the Consumer Federation of America. Premiums have climbed roughly 17 percent in three years. Hurricane deductibles run 1 to 5 percent of Coverage A — $6,000 to $15,000 out of pocket before insurance pays a dollar. Flood insurance is separate, required in many zones, and capped at 18 percent annual increases that compound year over year. Between 2024 and 2025, the county lost 1,300 flood insurance policies as residents dropped coverage they could no longer afford.

**The county’s defining vulnerability is not wind — it is water.** Hurricane Florence in 2018 made landfall as a Category 1 and stalled. The Waccamaw River crested at 21.16 feet, according to the National Weather Service. Residential damage across Horry County reached an estimated $49 million. Hugo in 1989 drove a 13-foot storm surge into Garden City and caused $944 million in damage. Hazel in 1954 destroyed more than 80 percent of oceanfront property along the Grand Strand. Each exploited a different weakness — rain, surge, wind — and each found the county exposed.

The tourism economy adds another layer. Visitors to the Grand Strand spent $13.2 billion in 2024, according to Tourism Works for Grand Strand. But hotel occupancy dropped 3.3 percent in 2025. Accommodations tax revenue fell 10.8 percent. A $72 million U.S. Army Corps of Engineers beach renourishment project is underway with an expected mid-summer 2026 completion. A September hurricane arriving before that sand settles could erase tens of millions in federal investment in a single tide cycle.

## What Comes Next

NOAA’s official 2026 hurricane season forecast is expected later this month. The season begins June 1. The forecast will carry the same caveat every seasonal forecast carries: one storm in the wrong place matters more than the total count.

For Horry County, the El Niño debate is less relevant than it appears. A suppressed season can still produce a Florence — a slow, wet system that turns the Waccamaw into a weapon. A hyperactive season can track entirely through the Caribbean and miss the Carolinas. The county’s risk is structural. It sits on flat terrain laced with tidal rivers, protected by a beach that requires constant engineering, insured at rates residents are already abandoning, and populated at a density that did not exist the last time a major hurricane tested its infrastructure.

Residents who still carry flood insurance, maintain storm supplies, and know their evacuation zone are not preparing for a forecast — they are preparing for the storm that finds them regardless of what the season total turns out to be.

## Further Reading

– [NOAA Climate Prediction Center — ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, April 2026](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/)

– [IRI ENSO Forecast, Columbia University](https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/)

– [UK Met Office — El Niño Update, April 2026](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/climate/el-nino)

– [World Meteorological Organization — El Niño/La Niña Update](https://wmo.int/topics/el-nino-la-nina)

– [Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project — 2026 Forecast](https://tropical.colostate.edu/)

– [Klotzbach et al., “Summary of 2023 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2024](https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/bams-d-24-0001.1.xml)

– [NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory — El Niño and Atlantic Hurricane Activity](https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/elnino/)

– [NOAA Climate.gov — El Niño and Wind Shear](https://www.climate.gov/enso)

– [World Population Review — Horry County](https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-counties/south-carolina/horry-county)

– [Consumer Federation of America — Homeowners Insurance Report](https://consumerfed.org/)

– [Tourism Works for Grand Strand — 2024 Economic Impact](https://www.visitmyrtlebeach.com/)