New Emerson polling shows a three-point race with 12 days to go — and a quarter of Republican voters still haven’t picked anyone.
Twelve days from now, Horry County Republicans will walk into a polling place in the dead of August to help pick a United States senator. Most of them have no idea it’s happening. Fewer still know the man Horry County sent to Congress two years ago, Russell Fry, while Norman and Graham lead current polls.
A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey released Thursday finds U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman leading the special Republican primary with 22 percent, followed by interim Sen. Darline Graham Nordone at 19 percent, Horry County’s own U.S. Rep. Russell Fry at 12 percent, and former Gov. Mark Sanford at 11 percent [Nexstar Media/Emerson College Polling, 2026]. Roughly one in four likely primary voters remains undecided. The poll was taken July 28–29, immediately after the filing period closed.
Three points is not a lead. It’s a rounding error with better public relations. And in a race this compressed, the numbers that matter most may not be the top line at all.
The Race Between Norman and Graham Intensifies
The Field Has Consolidated — and the Race Got Tighter, Not Clearer
Compare Thursday’s numbers to the first public survey of this race, taken July 14–15, and you can watch a scramble turn into a contest. In that earlier Emerson/Nexstar poll of 500 likely GOP primary voters, Norman led with 16.4 percent, businessman Mark Lynch took 12.5 percent, and Graham Nordone — appointed to her late brother’s seat just days earlier — sat at 5.9 percent [The Hill, 2026]. She has climbed roughly 13 points in two weeks.
Part of that is simple name recognition catching up. In the mid-July survey, 17 percent of Republican primary voters had never heard of the new senator at all, and another 39 percent had no opinion of her [Emerson College Polling, 2026]. A candidate polling at 6 percent because half the electorate doesn’t know she exists is not a weak candidate. She’s an undefined one.
Part of it is attrition. U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace, who polled at 10 percent in mid-July, exited the Senate race and endorsed Norman. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette and Gov. Henry McMaster, who together accounted for nearly 18 points of the early field, did not file. Twelve Republicans ultimately made the ballot [WCNC, 2026], including former Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride, who is running on opposition to U.S. military involvement in Iran and previously sought this same seat in 2004 [WMBF News, 2026]. McBride is known for entering every possible race, usually garnering no more than 1% to 2% in the polls.
Two independent surveys taken in between tell roughly the same story from different angles. A poll by Innovative Communication Strategies, conducted July 20–21 among 788 verified Republican primary voters, showed Norman at 18.6 percent to Graham Nordone’s 16.3 percent — inside the margin of error — with Fry at 11.7 percent and 26.3 percent undecided [WPDE, 2026]. A Resonance Media Services survey taken July 21 flipped the order, putting Graham Nordone at 20.8 percent and Norman at 16.9 percent [Newsweek, 2026].
Four polls, four slightly different snapshots, one consistent finding: nobody is close to 50 percent.
The Trump Endorsement Landed With a Thud
Here is the finding that should reset every assumption about how South Carolina Republican primaries work.
President Trump endorsed Graham Nordone on July 17. In Thursday’s Emerson poll, 53 percent of likely GOP primary voters said that endorsement makes no difference to their vote. Twenty-nine percent said it makes them more likely to support her. Eighteen percent said it makes them less likely [Nexstar Media/Emerson College Polling, 2026].
Now hold that against what those same voters said before the endorsement existed. In mid-July, 41 percent told Emerson a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to back a candidate, and 46 percent of undecideds said the same [Emerson College Polling, 2026].
That gap — between what voters say an endorsement will do and what it actually did — is the single most useful piece of data in this entire race. Hypothetical Trump is a kingmaker. Actual Trump, endorsing an appointed senator who inherited the seat from her brother, moved fewer than three in ten voters.
If you’ve watched Grand Strand politics for any length of time, you’ve seen this pattern before at the municipal level: an endorsement from a popular figure works right up until voters suspect it’s being used to install someone rather than to reward someone. Graham Nordone still polls competitively. But she is not being carried.
Fry’s Two-Ballot Gamble Is Horry County’s Real Stake in This
For readers in Murrells Inlet, Surfside Beach, Conway and North Myrtle Beach, the top-line horse race is less consequential than what Russell Fry has quietly set up.
Fry is running for the U.S. Senate on August 11. He is also already on the November 3 ballot seeking reelection in South Carolina’s 7th Congressional District. Under state law, a candidate may seek two offices simultaneously but cannot hold both. If Fry were to win both, he would have to choose — and vacating one would trigger yet another special election [WMBF News, 2026].
Read that again. Horry County could be looking at a second special election, on the public’s dime, depending on how one man’s August goes.
Fry’s ceiling in this race is genuinely regional. The Innovative Communication Strategies poll found him at 39 percent within the Myrtle Beach media market while Norman dominated the Upstate at 26 percent [WPDE, 2026]. The Resonance survey put Fry at 29 percent in his home district [FITSNews, 2026]. Those are strong numbers in a seven-county footprint that includes Horry, Georgetown, Marion, Dillon, Marlboro, Chesterfield, Darlington and most of Florence. They are not strong numbers statewide, where he sits at 12 percent.
Fry, who lives in Murrells Inlet and won reelection with 65 percent in 2024, drew roughly 200 people to a Myrtle Beach campaign stop this week before heading to Summerville and York County [MyHorryNews, 2026]. “I’m back home,” he told the crowd, before pledging to take the campaign statewide.
The strategic question nobody local is asking out loud: does a strong Fry showing on the Grand Strand help him — or does it simply split the anti-establishment vote and hand the runoff slot to someone else? Because the runoff is where this ends.
August 25 Is the Election That Actually Matters
With four candidates in double digits and 25 percent undecided, nobody is winning a majority on August 11. A runoff between the top two is scheduled for August 25, with early voting August 19–21 [WCNC, 2026]. Early voting for the primary itself runs only August 5–7 — three days, in the first week of August, when a substantial share of the Grand Strand is either working tourism season or out of town.
Low turnout doesn’t produce random results. It produces results determined by whoever is most organized. And two data points suggest Norman is better positioned for that second round than his three-point lead implies. The Resonance survey found Norman leading the field on voters’ second choice, which is the currency of runoffs [FITSNews, 2026]. Thursday’s Emerson poll found Sanford, who entered late, drawing 21.2 percent among undecided voters — just ahead of Fry [Nexstar Media/Emerson College Polling, 2026]. Those are votes that have to land somewhere on August 25.
Meanwhile, 88 percent of respondents said a debate among the candidates is very or somewhat important [Nexstar Media/Emerson College Polling, 2026]. In a race with a 31-day campaign, that is voters telling pollsters, plainly, that they have not been given enough information to make this decision.
What Should Actually Be On Your Ballot Test
The Emerson poll asked Republicans what the next senator should prioritize. Sixty percent said the economy. Immigration came in at 19 percent, health care at 8 percent, foreign policy lower still [Nexstar Media/Emerson College Polling, 2026]. On grocery prices, 41.6 percent blamed former President Biden. On gas prices, the largest share — 31.5 percent — blamed the current president.
That is an electorate focused on cost of living and willing to assign blame across party lines when it hits their wallet. Which makes the affordability question the one worth putting to every candidate who comes through Horry County between now and August 11: flood insurance, homeowners premiums, workforce housing, and what a senator can actually do about any of it.
Whoever wins this primary is, functionally, the next senator. Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate race in South Carolina since 1998, and Trump carried the state by 18 points in 2024 [Newsweek, 2026]. The general election on November 3 against Democrat Annie Andrews is a formality by historical standards.
So a seat held for more than two decades will be handed off in a summer sprint, decided by whichever slice of voters shows up in the first three weeks of August. Norman leads by three. Graham Nordone has the president. Fry has Horry County and a second ballot line as a safety net. And a quarter of the electorate hasn’t decided anything.
Twelve days. Are you voting on August 11 — and do you even know where your polling place is? Tell us in the comments.
Further Reading
Norman and Graham – Emerson College Polling, “South Carolina 2026 Poll: No Clear Leader to Replace Late Sen. Graham on Ballot” — https://emersoncollegepolling.com/south-carolina-2026-poll-no-clear-leader-to-replace-late-sen-graham-on-ballot/
Norman and Graham -Nexstar/Queen City News, “Ralph Norman leads tight race for South Carolina’s Senate seat” — https://www.qcnews.com/news/politics/election/south-carolina-elections/ralph-norman-leads-tight-race-for-south-carolinas-senate-seat-trump-blamed-for-high-gas-prices-nexstar-poll/
Norman and Graham -The Hill, “No clear favorite in GOP Senate race to succeed Graham in South Carolina” — https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5970915-gop-sc-senate-poll-results/
Norman and Graham – WPDE, “New poll shows Norman leading crowded South Carolina Senate primary” — https://wpde.com/news/local/new-poll-shows-norman-leading-crowded-south-carolina-senate-primary-us-rep-ralph-norman-south-carolinas-republican-special-primary-us-senate-ralph-norman-darline-graham-russell-fry
Norman and Graham – Newsweek, “Darline Graham, Ralph Norman Lead South Carolina GOP Senate Poll” — https://www.newsweek.com/lindsey-graham-sister-ralph-norman-south-carolina-senate-poll-12245048
Norman and Graham – FITSNews, “S.C. Succession: Lindsey Graham’s Sister Surges in New Poll” — https://www.fitsnews.com/2026/07/25/s-c-succession-lindsey-grahams-sister-surges-in-new-poll/
Norman and Graham – WMBF News, “Rep. Russell Fry makes Senate pitch to Horry County voters” — https://www.wmbfnews.com/2026/07/28/rep-russell-fry-makes-senate-pitch-horry-county-voters/
Norman and Graham – WMBF News, “Former Myrtle Beach mayor joins crowded race for late Sen. Lindsey Graham’s seat” — https://www.wmbfnews.com/2026/07/24/former-myrtle-beach-mayor-joins-crowded-race-late-sen-lindsey-grahams-seat/
Norman and Graham – MyHorryNews, “Russell Fry campaigns in Myrtle Beach for U.S. Senate” — https://www.myhorrynews.com/news/russell-fry-campaigns-in-myrtle-beach-for-u-s-senate/article_756469aa-4f09-4957-9c5d-4b4a6f0bc9c0.html
Norman and Graham – WCNC, “12 Republicans officially file to run in South Carolina special Senate primary” — https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/politics/south-carolina-politics/filing-deadline-approaches-for-sc-senate-race/275-ded22379-cc0f-45ca-b0f4-19f4474cdd3d
Norman and Graham – The Post and Courier, “Here are the 9 certified SC GOP candidates who want Lindsey Graham’s former US Senate seat” — https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-gop-primary-senate-lindsey-graham/article_b2e68246-40c7-4295-b714-d1443b0be9f6.html
