South Carolina votes Tuesday in a Republican gubernatorial primary that the public polling has not settled. Five active candidates remain in the field. Seven names will print on the ballot. No candidate sits near the 50-percent-plus-one threshold required to win the nomination outright. By the math of the four polls released in the final week, a June 23 runoff is the most likely outcome — not a predicted winner. This election offers a new open seat opportunity in the SC governor primary.

The state closed early voting Friday at 318,602 ballots cast across 46 counties, according to the South Carolina Election Commission. Polls open at 7 a.m. Tuesday and close 12 hours later. What happens after that depends on Election Day turnout, on which two of five candidates clear the field, and on how the ballot itself is read by voters who arrive at their precinct.

As voters prepare for the SC governor primary, understanding the candidates and their platforms is crucial.

Key Insights on the SC Governor Primary

The state of the field

Five Republicans are actively campaigning into the final hours.

**Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette** carries the endorsement of President Donald Trump, posted May 29, and the earlier February endorsement of Gov. Henry McMaster. Edgefield County Sheriff Jody Rowland endorsed her in August 2025. Evette is the only candidate with a verified public final-weekend schedule. Her campaign site lists a Sunday evening appearance at the Carolina Country Music Festival in Myrtle Beach and an Election Eve Rally Monday at 6 p.m. at the Historic Greer Depot. McMaster is the confirmed guest at the Greer event.

**Attorney General Alan Wilson** leads three of the four most recent polls. His institutional support stack — built through 2025 and the spring of 2026 — runs to 22 South Carolina sheriffs, seven Republican attorneys general, and four state solicitors. State Sen. Josh Kimbrell endorsed Wilson on June 3 immediately after suspending his own campaign. Wilson’s campaign did not publish a public final-weekend itinerary.

**U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman** of South Carolina’s 5th District holds endorsements from former Gov. Nikki Haley, former U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint, and former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, all from July 2025. Norman named former state Freedom Caucus chair Adam Morgan as his lieutenant governor pick at a Greenville event on June 1. No public Sunday or Monday schedule was posted.

**U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace** of South Carolina’s 1st District has not announced a final-cycle endorsement. Her campaign’s events page lists no upcoming public stops. Mace introduced the Shrimp Honesty and Responsibility in Import Monitoring Protocols Act in the U.S. House on Thursday, June 5 — confirmation she was active on Capitol Hill the day before the final weekend opened.

**Businessman Rom Reddy** of Isle of Palms has spent $5.85 million on broadcast, cable, satellite, and streaming advertising since mid-March, all self-funded, according to FITSNews tracking dated June 4. Reddy holds no announced major endorsements. His last verified public rally was in Greenville County on June 1. He will be at the Crafty Rooster in Conway tonight.

What stays on the ballot, what does not count

Seven names will appear on the printed Republican primary ballot. Five are active candidates. The other two — Kimbrell and Jacqueline Hicks DuBose — were on the ballot before the printing deadline and remain there. Their treatment is not identical.

Kimbrell suspended his campaign the evening of Wednesday, June 3, and endorsed Wilson the same day. He was not decertified. Votes cast for Kimbrell on Tuesday will be counted and will apply against the 50-percent threshold.

DuBose was decertified by the South Carolina Republican Party on May 4 after a $4,200 filing-fee check did not clear. Her name remains on printed ballots because the decertification came after the printing deadline. Votes cast for DuBose will not count toward the nomination. The South Carolina Republican Party and county election offices are working on polling-site signage and verbal notification of the DuBose status, according to the State Election Commission.

The distinction matters for the runoff math. A Kimbrell vote reduces the denominator that every active candidate is chasing to reach 50 percent plus one. A DuBose vote does not.

The runoff math

Four polls released between June 1 and June 5 capture the closing window. Trafalgar Group’s June 2-4 survey of 982 likely voters shows Evette at 23.5 percent, Reddy at 17.9 percent, Wilson at 18.5 percent, Norman at 14.6 percent, and Mace at 12.7 percent. Tyson Group’s June 1-3 survey shows Wilson at 18.8 percent and Evette at 18.0 percent. Opinion Diagnostics, fielded June 1-2, shows Wilson at 21.6 percent. Starboard Communications, June 3-4, shows Wilson at 19.4 percent. Wilson leads three of the four. Evette leads the fourth.

The highest single topline in the field — Evette’s 23.5 percent in Trafalgar — sits 26.5 points below the 50-percent-plus-one threshold required to win the nomination outright on Tuesday. Wilson’s three leads sit 28 to 31 points below the same line. Undecided voters range from 11.1 percent to 24.9 percent across the four surveys. Margins of error run from 2.9 to 4.4 points.

By the math of those four polls, a June 23 runoff is the overwhelmingly likely outcome. The math says nothing about which two candidates advance.

South Carolina runs an open primary. Voters who pull a Republican ballot Tuesday may vote in the June 23 Republican runoff. Voters who pull a Democratic ballot Tuesday cannot cross over to the Republican runoff and cannot vote in any Democratic runoff that does not exist.

Election Day procedures

Polls open at 7 a.m. Tuesday, June 9, and close at 7 p.m. Any voter in line at 7 p.m. may still cast a ballot.

Photo ID is required. The State Election Commission accepts the South Carolina driver’s license, the South Carolina DMV identification card, the South Carolina voter registration card with photo, the federal military ID, the U.S. passport, the concealed weapons permit, and the temporary identification certificate.

Same-day voter registration is not allowed in South Carolina. The online registration deadline was May 10. Voters who missed it cannot register on Election Day.

Voters who arrive without acceptable photo ID may vote a provisional ballot. The provisional ballot counts only if the voter brings valid photo ID to the county elections office before certification on Friday, June 12, or if the voter signs a reasonable-impediment affidavit at the polling place. Free photo IDs are available from the Department of Motor Vehicles and county elections offices.

Polling-place lookup runs through scvotes.gov. Absentee ballots must arrive at the voter’s county election office by 7 p.m. Tuesday to be counted. The State Election Commission sent 16,017 absentee ballots for the cycle; 11,038 had been returned as of June 5.

SCEC Executive Director Conway Belangia, confirmed by the South Carolina Senate in April, has characterized the early-voting cycle as “phenomenal.”

What 318,602 early votes do not tell us

The 318,602 figure is the largest primary early-voting cumulative in South Carolina history. It runs 2.65 times the 2024 primary record and 3.17 times the 2022 baseline.

Through June 2, the published State Election Commission snapshot showed roughly 64 percent Democratic ballots and 36 percent Republican ballots, with the Republican share rising through the second week. The State Election Commission has not published a final partisan breakdown of the full 318,602. Based on the published mid-cycle figures and the second-week ramp, the final Republican-pulled share lands in the 35-to-40 percent range — somewhere between 110,000 and 130,000 Republican-pulled early ballots. That is a directional estimate, not a published number.

A Republican-pulled early ballot does not project the gubernatorial primary leader. South Carolina does not record candidate selection by mode. The Republican electorate is widely expected to lean more on in-person turnout at the precinct Tuesday than on early voting. What the night turns on, in other words, is the share of the Republican vote that has not yet been cast.

The federal-legislative context

The House Armed Services Committee voted 44-12 late Thursday, June 5, to advance the $1.15 trillion fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act after roughly 14 hours of markup and 900 amendments. U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson of South Carolina’s 2nd District — Alan Wilson’s adoptive father, who serves on the committee — praised the bill’s provisions on plutonium pit production at the Savannah River Site.

Mace introduced the SHRIMP Act in the U.S. House the same day. Norman remained in his congressional posture. The House Republican working majority of four seats runs through January 2027. That margin places Mace, Norman, and Joe Wilson at the center of every floor count regardless of how the gubernatorial primary breaks Tuesday. Both House members in the gubernatorial field return to a chamber where their single votes continue to set the ceiling of what passes — unless either advances to the June 23 runoff.

What to watch Tuesday

Polls close at 7 p.m. Tuesday. The State Election Commission is expected to begin posting unofficial returns shortly afterward. The first read will come from in-person Election Day precincts; the early-voting cumulative will be incorporated as counties report.

If no candidate clears 50 percent plus one — and on the four-poll baseline, none is positioned to — the top two finishers advance to a runoff on Tuesday, June 23. Only voters who pulled a Republican ballot on June 9 may vote in that runoff. The record early-voting cumulative and the open-primary methodology mean Tuesday’s outcome will turn on Election Day in-person Republican turnout — a number that does not exist yet.

## Further Reading

– FITSNews — “Poll Position: Alan Wilson Leads 2026 S.C. Governor’s Race Entering Homestretch” (June 5, 2026)

– FITSNews — “S.C. Governor’s Race: Spending Soars” (June 4, 2026)

– South Carolina Election Commission — “Record Breaking Early Voting Period Ends, Election Day Set to Open June 9” (June 5, 2026)

– South Carolina Election Commission — “Prep for the 2026 Statewide Primaries & Runoffs“

– WBTV — “2026 South Carolina primary election: What to know at the polls” (June 3, 2026)

– South Carolina Public Radio — “South Carolinians set record-breaking participation record” (June 5, 2026)

– WIS-TV — “Early Voting Tracker: Record turnout continues for SC primaries” (June 5, 2026)

– WIS-TV — “Sen. Josh Kimbrell endorses AG Alan Wilson for SC governor after ending campaign” (June 4, 2026)

– SC Daily Gazette — “SC GOP senator ends bid for governor, making it a 5-way race” (June 4, 2026)

– SC Daily Gazette — “Despite Trump’s post, SC governor’s son says he won’t run with Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette” (June 5, 2026)

– SC Daily Gazette — “Longshot candidate for SC governor disqualified for not paying filing fee” (May 11, 2026)

– Roll Call — “Fiscal 2027 NDAA approved by House Armed Services Committee” (June 5, 2026)

– Washington Examiner — “House Armed Services Committee advances $1.15 trillion NDAA after 14 hour debate”

– Fox Carolina — “SC Governor’s candidate Rom Reddy holds campaign rally in Greenville Co.” (June 1, 2026)

– pamelaevette.com — Campaign events page

– South Carolina Election Commission — “South Carolina Senate confirms Conway Belangia as State Election Commission Executive Director” (April 2026)